TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,407

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 7:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$683
$1,407
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T23:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T23:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the total volume traded – currently $1,407 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $1,408. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and see how it evolves as we approach the event. The dashboard also displays the implied probability of each outcome based on the trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on economic indicators and historical trends, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of factors not typically considered by analysts. It’s valuable to compare both viewpoints to gain a more comprehensive understanding of potential price movements, but remember that this market reflects real-money stakes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds reflect the most up-to-date collective assessment of the market participants.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:15 PM ET and 7:30 PM ET on October 26th. If the price is higher at 7:30 PM ET than at 7:15 PM ET, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will win. The precise price data will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major political announcements, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, major news related to gold mining production or demand from large economies like China and India could also cause substantial price movements and shifts in trading volume.