TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

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4,363

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5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$746

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 7:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$38
$746
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T11:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T11:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a live feed of the odds as traders buy and sell contracts, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $744, and the total volume traded to date, which is $746. This provides a clear picture of market activity and where traders are placing their bets.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are predicting continued volatility due to macroeconomic factors, this market reflects a more nuanced view, incorporating real-time information and diverse opinions. It’s important to note that analyst predictions are often based on models and reports released periodically, whereas this market updates continuously with every trade. Examining the difference between these viewpoints can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction process where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:15 AM ET and 7:30 AM ET on October 26th. If the price is higher at 7:30 AM ET than at 7:15 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often drive gold price fluctuations. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, can also create volatility. Additionally, any surprising news regarding major gold-holding nations or large institutional investors could impact trader sentiment and move this market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the odds.