TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,363

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 6:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
Volume
24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$297
$1,363
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T10:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T10:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. It also tracks the total volume traded, which is currently $1,363, and the 24-hour volume, standing at $1,352. You can view a price history chart to see how the market has been pricing in different outcomes over time. This provides a visual representation of trader sentiment regarding the short-term direction of the gold price.

Currently, the collective predictions within this market offer a unique perspective when contrasted with traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing predictions as probabilities. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can react more quickly to new information and reflect a broader range of opinions than a limited number of analyst reports. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price volatility.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome occurring, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of that outcome. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:30 AM ET and 6:45 AM ET on October 26th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The exact price change will be verified against trusted financial data sources.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can create volatility. Any news related to major gold-holding countries or significant changes in global currency valuations could also move this market.