TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,129

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 6:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$4
$1,129
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T22:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T22:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of trading volume, currently at $1,118, alongside the 24-hour volume and the overall volume since the market opened, which is $1,129. The dashboard also shows the evolving odds as traders buy and sell contracts, giving you a sense of where the crowd believes the price is headed. This provides a dynamic snapshot of market sentiment.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide price targets for gold, their predictions often differ in methodology and underlying assumptions. This market represents a real-money view – traders are putting their capital behind their beliefs about the gold price movement. It’s a valuable data point to consider alongside expert opinions, potentially revealing areas of agreement or disagreement regarding the short-term trajectory of gold.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the aggregated sentiment of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing system that attempts to accurately forecast the outcome of the event.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 6:15 PM to 6:30 PM ET window on October 26th. A definitive increase or decrease in price during that period will determine whether the 'up' or 'down' outcome is declared the winner. The platform will verify this information against established financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution process.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often drive gold price fluctuations. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also create safe-haven demand for gold. Additionally, shifts in interest rate expectations, driven by central bank policy, can impact gold’s attractiveness as an investment. Any significant news related to these areas has the potential to cause substantial movement in the gold price movement market.