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419,363

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$444

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 6:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$444
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T09:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T09:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the total volume traded – currently $444 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $442. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how actively traders are participating in this specific prediction market. The dashboard also displays price history, providing a view of how the probabilities have shifted over time.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts regarding gold price movements vary considerably. Some analysts predict a slight increase due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, while others anticipate a decline based on potential interest rate hikes. This market reflects a different perspective – the collective wisdom of traders on Predict – and may offer a contrasting view to traditional financial analysis. Comparing the probabilities offered here with those suggested by financial news sources and expert opinions can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that aims to accurately represent the probability of each outcome as perceived by the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 5:45AM-6:00AM ET timeframe on October 26th. An increase in price will determine the 'up' outcome, while a decrease will determine the 'down' outcome. The final price change will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any surprising statements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger substantial price movements. Monitoring these events and their potential impact on investor confidence will be key to understanding shifts in this market.