TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$796

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 5:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$293
$796
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T21:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T21:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $791, and the total market volume, which is $796. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price changes, offering insight into market sentiment. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades are placed on Predict.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are issuing reports on gold’s potential trajectory, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts before they are widely recognized in mainstream financial analysis, or to demonstrate a higher degree of confidence in certain outcomes than polls or expert opinions suggest.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see displayed. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts reflects the level of uncertainty among traders.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:30 PM and 5:45 PM Eastern Time on October 26th. A positive change signifies an increase, while a negative change indicates a decrease. The final price movement will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring a transparent and accurate determination of the result for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often drive gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also create safe-haven demand for gold. Additionally, significant currency fluctuations, particularly with the US dollar, and any surprising announcements from major gold-producing countries could all contribute to price volatility and impact trading activity in this market.