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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T09:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T09:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $174, and the total volume traded to date, which is $175. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of whether the gold price will move up or down, often incorporating information not immediately available in traditional analyst reports. While many financial analysts offer forecasts for gold prices, this market provides a unique perspective based on real money at stake. It’s common to see differences between prediction market probabilities and those published by analysts, as traders weigh various factors and potential catalysts differently. This market offers a dynamic, real-time view of expectations that can diverge from static analyst opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future gold price movement. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, reflecting the aggregated wisdom of the crowd. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades result in financial gain, driving the odds towards a consensus expectation.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 5:15AM-5:30AM ET window on October 26th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted ‘Up’, while a price decrease will favor those who predicted ‘Down’. The final price change will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider and will be the definitive factor in determining the market's outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could trigger substantial price movements. Any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in investor sentiment could also cause the odds in this market to shift considerably.