TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 4AM-4:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$85

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 4AM-4:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 4AM-4:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 4:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 4AM-4:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T08:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T08:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $84, and the total volume traded to date, which is $85. This information helps you understand market sentiment and trading activity related to the anticipated gold price shift.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of factors not typically considered in standard analyses. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts before they are widely recognized by conventional financial forecasting, or to assign different probabilities to the same outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants in the market, providing a real-time assessment of potential price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:00 AM and 4:15 AM ET on October 26th. If the price is higher at 4:15 AM ET than at 4:00 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including conflicts or political instability, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Central bank announcements regarding interest rate policies are another key catalyst. Finally, major currency fluctuations, particularly involving the US dollar, can exert considerable pressure on gold's value, causing shifts in trading activity and the overall probabilities reflected in this market.