TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

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4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 4:45PM-5PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$513

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 4:45PM-5PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 4:45PM-5PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 5:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 4:45PM-5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$453
$513
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T20:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T20:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, the price history of these predictions, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $509, with a total volume of $513. Traders on Predict are actively forecasting the direction of the gold price, and the dashboard provides a visual representation of their collective expectations. This allows participants to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific market.

Currently, the odds on Predict reflect a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend in gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market shows a more balanced expectation. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and expert opinions, as this market aggregates the wisdom of many individuals, potentially incorporating information not readily available to or valued by traditional analysts. This difference highlights the unique perspective offered by this market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the predicted event occurring. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe of 4:45 PM to 5:00 PM ET on October 26th. The direction of the price movement—whether it increases or decreases—will determine the winning outcome. The result will be sourced from widely recognized financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency for all participants in this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating conflicts or unexpected political developments, could also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in global risk appetite could trigger substantial movements in this market. Unexpected news related to major gold-producing countries could also play a role.