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420,368

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$147

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 4:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$147
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T08:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T08:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. Users can view the real-time odds, track the market’s price history, and monitor the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $147. The total volume for this market is $147. This information helps traders assess market sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of how traders are evaluating the potential for price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions about geopolitical events, unexpected economic data releases, or shifts in investor sentiment. It’s common to see this market anticipating changes before they are reflected in mainstream analyst predictions, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a market-making algorithm to ensure liquidity and facilitate trading. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements that represent the evolving expectations of the market participants.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:15 AM and 4:30 AM Eastern Time on October 26th. A verified increase in the gold price during that period will result in a positive outcome, while a decrease will result in a negative outcome. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, are likely to influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, often drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in global risk appetite could also trigger substantial price movements and impact trading activity in this market.