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419,492

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 3AM-3:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$127

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 3AM-3:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 3AM-3:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 3:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 3AM-3:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$127
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T07:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T07:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart illustrating how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $126. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential opportunities. Total volume for this market is $127, indicating overall interest.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing predictions on gold’s future performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate real-time information and react more quickly to new developments than slower-moving analyst reports. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the odds closely mirror the perceived probability of each outcome, providing a real-time assessment of market sentiment regarding the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:00 AM and 3:15 AM ET on October 26th. Whether the price has increased or decreased during that period will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are likely to move this market. Any surprise announcements or developments in these areas could lead to substantial shifts in trading activity.