TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,693

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 3:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$159
$1,693
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T19:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T19:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value by the specified time. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded—currently $1,693—and the 24-hour volume, which is $1,671. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how actively traders are participating in this particular prediction market. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how the crowd is forecasting the direction of gold.

Comparing prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. Often, this market demonstrates an ability to synthesize information from diverse sources more effectively than individual expert opinions. While analysts may offer specific price targets, this market provides a probabilistic view of potential outcomes, reflecting the uncertainty inherent in commodity trading. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when unexpected events or shifts in economic indicators occur, as traders rapidly adjust their positions based on new information.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the odds you see are a direct result of real-money trading, making it a strong signal of market expectations. The current implied probability of either outcome is shaped by the volume of trades and the willingness of traders to take either side of the bet.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 3:30PM-3:45PM ET window on October 26th. The direction of the price movement—whether it goes up or down—will determine which outcome is considered correct. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure transparency and accuracy, providing a definitive result for all participants in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any significant news related to major gold-producing countries or large institutional investors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market.