TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$519

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 2:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$519
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T06:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T06:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:30AM and 2:45AM ET on October 26th. You'll find a price history showing how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $518. Total volume for this market is $519. This allows you to see how traders are reacting to news and information as the event approaches, and provides a clear view of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are offering predictions on gold's future performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a diverse range of opinions and real-time reactions to new information. Often, the market can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty that aren't fully captured in consensus analyst estimates. It’s a different way to gauge expectations, focusing on what traders are willing to put capital behind.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants, adjusting rapidly to new information and changing sentiment regarding the gold price.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the gold price at 2:45AM ET on October 26th is higher or lower than its price at 2:30AM ET on the same day. This determination will be made using publicly available financial data, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Even unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could influence trading activity in this market, causing the odds to shift as traders react to the new information.