TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$172,394,893

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,821,572,886

404,136

Markets across

40,075

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$766

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 2:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$62
$766
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T18:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T18:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:15PM and 2:30PM ET on October 26th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $766, with $761 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Generally, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders, often incorporating information not readily available in traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions on gold price direction, this market represents a real-money view. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when significant uncertainty exists or when traders have access to specialized data. However, if analysts widely predict a gold price increase, we might expect to see the odds of 'Up' in this market increase accordingly, though the magnitude of the change may differ.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the combined judgment of all participants, and the implied probability of each outcome is derived from the contract prices. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for efficient discovery of information and a constantly updated forecast.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 2:15 PM ET and 2:30 PM ET on October 26th. If the price is higher at 2:30 PM ET than at 2:15 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final determination will be based on data from established financial sources.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global political stability or major international incidents, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, particularly concerning interest rates, could trigger price movements. Any surprise announcements or developments related to these areas have the potential to shift the odds in this market considerably before Oct 26, 2026.