TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$39

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 1:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$39
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T05:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T05:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart reflecting trader sentiment over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $39, and the total market volume, which is $39. This information provides a real-time view of how participants are forecasting the direction of the gold price during the specified timeframe. The dashboard updates continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide price targets based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders betting with real capital. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of economic indicators, geopolitical events, or simply varying risk appetites. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream financial commentary. Examining both sources provides a more comprehensive view.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants, offering a forward-looking indicator of potential price movement. Trading volume and order book depth also influence price discovery.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:30 AM and 1:45 AM ET on October 26th. If the price is higher at 1:45 AM ET than at 1:30 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or central bank announcements, often drive gold price fluctuations. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy changes, can also create safe-haven demand for gold. Additionally, shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in interest rate expectations can influence investor sentiment. Major news regarding gold mining production or significant purchases by central banks could also move the market.