TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

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4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$114

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 12:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T04:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T04:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, which currently stands at $114. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity. Total volume for this market is $114, providing insight into overall interest. The dashboard is a central hub for monitoring the market’s dynamics and making informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and potential outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions or the market’s ability to rapidly incorporate new information. It’s common to see this market adjust more quickly to unexpected news than traditional forecasts, offering a real-time assessment of probability.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to each outcome. Higher prices for a given outcome suggest greater confidence in that result, while lower prices indicate less confidence. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information and evolving sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 12:30AM-12:45AM ET window on October 26th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down.' The precise price change will be verified against established financial data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in global currency exchange rates could also play a role. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential market movements.