TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 11:45PM-12AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$223

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 11:45PM-12AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 11:45PM-12AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 12:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 11:45PM-12AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$223
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T03:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T03:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, indicating how much activity this market has seen recently. Currently, the total volume is $223 and the 24-hour volume is $215. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. While analysts may offer specific price targets, this market provides a probabilistic view of whether the price will move up or down. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets are driven by real-money incentives and can adjust rapidly to new information, unlike static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future direction of the gold price. The price of these contracts reflects the probability of gold increasing or decreasing in value, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a market maker system to ensure liquidity and fair pricing, allowing traders to quickly enter and exit positions. The current spread between the buy and sell price indicates the cost of trading in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 11:45 PM to 12:00 AM ET window on October 26th. If the price is higher at 12:00 AM ET than at 11:45 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant news regarding major gold-producing countries or large institutional investments in gold could influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.