TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 11:45AM-12PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,731

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 11:45AM-12PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 11:45AM-12PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 12:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 11:45AM-12PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$3
$2,731
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T15:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T15:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,734, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2,731. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price movement.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing reports on gold’s potential performance, this market provides a unique view based on the collective wisdom of traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the crowd’s assessment, particularly when considering short-term price fluctuations. This difference can stem from varying methodologies, biases, or access to different information sources, offering a valuable alternative data point for those following the gold market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price increasing, with higher prices suggesting a stronger belief in an upward movement. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price changes throughout the trading period.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:45 AM ET and 12:00 PM ET on October 26th. If the price is higher at 12:00 PM ET than at 11:45 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could influence the market. Finally, major news regarding gold supply or demand, such as large purchases by central banks, could also trigger price movements.