TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,876

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 11:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$2,876
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T15:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T15:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in price between 11:30AM and 11:45AM ET on October 26th. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,871, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2,876. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are positioning themselves on the anticipated price action.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing reports on gold’s potential trajectory, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. This can lead to divergences, as prediction markets are sensitive to a wider range of information and less prone to biases found in traditional forecasting. It's common to see this market anticipating moves before they appear in consensus analyst expectations, or conversely, discounting narratives that aren’t backed by actual trading volume.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly adjusting as new information becomes available and traders react to events. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty surrounding the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 11:30 AM ET and 11:45 AM ET on October 26th. If the price is higher at 11:45 AM ET than at 11:30 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international tensions or major political announcements, can also drive safe-haven demand for gold. Additionally, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates or quantitative easing, could influence investor sentiment. Finally, major currency fluctuations, especially involving the US dollar, are likely to affect the price of gold and, consequently, this market.