TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10PM-10:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$519

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10PM-10:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10PM-10:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 10:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10PM-10:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$562
$519
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T02:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T02:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, indicating how much activity is occurring in this market. Currently, the total volume is $519 and the 24-hour volume is $519. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions.

Generally, prediction market odds represent the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting what a diverse group of traders believe will happen. This often differs from individual analyst forecasts, which can be influenced by biases or specific methodologies. While analysts may offer opinions on gold price direction, this market provides a real-time aggregate forecast based on actual money at stake. It’s common to see discrepancies, as markets can incorporate information and adjust rapidly in ways that traditional forecasts may not.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, and changes as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a forward-looking indicator of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:00 PM and 10:15 PM Eastern Time on October 26th. If the price increases during that window, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 27, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also create safe-haven demand for gold. Additionally, any significant news regarding major gold-holding countries or large institutional investors could move the market. Unexpected currency fluctuations or changes in commodity market sentiment could also play a role.