TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10AM-10:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$642

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10AM-10:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10AM-10:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 10:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10AM-10:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$30
$642
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T14:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T14:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM ET on October 26th. You’ll find a dynamic display of the odds, reflecting traders’ collective predictions. The dashboard also shows the recent price history of the market, allowing you to see how sentiment has shifted over time. Finally, it provides a view of the 24-hour volume, currently at $640, indicating how much trading activity this market has seen recently.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental economic data and technical indicators, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of the same data, or because traders anticipate events not yet factored into standard analyses. It's common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, potentially offering insights beyond those found in conventional financial reporting.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current volume of trading is $642, which influences the depth and liquidity of the market, and therefore the stability of the prices.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM ET on October 26th. If the price increases during that period, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy, like interest rate changes, could have a substantial impact. Finally, any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in investor sentiment could also affect trading activity in this market.