TOTAL VOLUME:

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2,984,640,614

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$1,905,404,943

412,077

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$834

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 10:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$30
$834
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T14:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T14:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:30AM and 10:45AM ET on October 26th. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $834. The total volume for this market is $834, indicating the overall interest from traders on Predict.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might rely on fundamental factors like economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders responding to a broader range of information and anticipating short-term price swings. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate information more quickly and efficiently than slower-moving analyst reports. This market provides a unique, forward-looking signal that differs from retrospective analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. These odds reflect the aggregate sentiment of all participants trading on Predict, and are constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the price of gold, as reported by a major financial data provider, is higher or lower at 10:45 AM ET on October 26th compared to its price at 10:30 AM ET. The final price change will be used to determine which outcome – gold up or gold down – is declared the winner of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates or quantitative easing, could influence investor sentiment and shift the odds in this market. Keep an eye on these factors as the resolution date approaches.