TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 25, 9PM-9:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$252

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 9PM-9:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 9PM-9:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 9:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 9PM-9:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$252
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T01:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T01:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $252, and the total volume traded to date, which is $252. This information allows you to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movement.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are issuing predictions about gold’s performance, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. If analysts generally predict a price increase, but this market shows a stronger inclination towards a price decrease, it suggests traders perceive factors not fully captured in conventional analysis. It’s a fascinating comparison point for anyone following the gold market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of a price increase, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements and a constantly updated assessment of potential outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:00 PM and 9:15 PM Eastern Time on October 25th. If the price is higher at 9:15 PM than at 9:00 PM, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Central bank policy decisions regarding interest rates and quantitative easing are also key catalysts. Furthermore, major news regarding gold mining production or significant changes in global currency valuations could influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.