TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$98

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 9:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$98
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T01:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T01:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time display of implied probabilities, reflecting how traders are betting on the outcome. The dashboard also shows the total volume traded in this market, currently at $98, and the 24-hour volume, which is $99. This provides a snapshot of market activity and sentiment around the potential price fluctuations of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide price targets based on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders responding to a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, risk appetite, or even anticipating unexpected events. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to divergences from initial analyst predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of gold will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential price movement of gold.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:15 PM ET and 9:30 PM ET on October 25th. The direction of the price change – whether it increases or decreases – will determine the winning outcome of this market. This is a short-term snapshot of price action, making it a focused prediction opportunity.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or major currency fluctuations could influence investor sentiment and subsequently affect trading activity in this market. Any surprise announcements from central banks are also likely to cause volatility.