TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

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$219,029,434

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2,984,028,936

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$1,869,293,526

411,051

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,170

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 8:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$15
$1,170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T00:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T00:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,156, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,170. This provides a real-time overview of market sentiment.

Currently, it’s important to note that this market’s predictions are solely based on the collective intelligence of traders on Predict. Comparing these odds to traditional analyst forecasts reveals how public sentiment differs from expert opinions. Often, prediction markets can offer a unique perspective, aggregating diverse viewpoints and potentially identifying signals missed by conventional analysis. The question is whether traders believe gold will move up or down, and their collective assessment is reflected in the current probabilities. This differs from a poll or survey, as traders have 'skin in the game' with their predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving consensus of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price indicates the probability of the 'gold up' outcome, with the 'gold down' outcome being the inverse. Traders adjust their positions as new information becomes available, creating a dynamic and responsive pricing system.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:15 PM ET and 8:30 PM ET on October 25th. If the price increases during that period, the 'gold up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'gold down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence the gold price movement market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often trigger volatility in gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, shifts in monetary policy by central banks, like interest rate changes or quantitative easing announcements, can impact gold's attractiveness. Any major news related to global economic conditions or risk sentiment could cause substantial movement in this market.