TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$30

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 7:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-25T23:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-25T23:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value, as well as a price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $29, and the total volume traded to date, which is $30. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price action of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to inflation concerns, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It's common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards. This allows for a dynamic assessment of potential outcomes that may differ from static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective wisdom of participants. The current implied probabilities are shaped by the actions of traders responding to news and events.

This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:30 PM and 7:45 PM ET on October 25th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'up,' while a decrease will result in a payout for those who predicted 'down.' The final price movement will be verified against credible public sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 25, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, are likely to influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in global trade relations, could also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any significant news regarding major gold-producing countries or large institutional investors could impact market sentiment and trading activity.