TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$53

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 6:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$53
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-25T22:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-25T22:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $53, and the total volume traded to date, which is $53. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and how sentiment is changing leading up to the event. The dashboard provides a real-time view of what traders believe about the near-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets or recommendations based on fundamental or technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate events or price in risks that haven’t yet been fully recognized by mainstream financial commentators, offering a unique signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. As more people buy 'up' contracts, the price of those contracts increases, and the implied probability of gold increasing in value rises. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, creating a continuously updated forecast. The current market price indicates the probability that traders assign to each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:15 PM and 6:30 PM Eastern Time on October 25th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win. If the price decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The exact price change will be verified against reliable financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 25, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can cause substantial price movements. Any surprise announcements or developments in these areas could lead to rapid shifts in the odds within this market.