TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 25, 11PM-11:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$130

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 11PM-11:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 11PM-11:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 11:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 11PM-11:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$130
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $131, and the total volume traded to date, which is $130. This information allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how traders are reacting to news and events that could impact the price of gold. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market represents a probabilistic view – a collective assessment of all possible outcomes. Often, prediction markets are better at incorporating new information quickly and efficiently, as traders continuously update their positions based on the latest developments. Discrepancies between this market and analyst expectations can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty about future gold price trends.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to a specific outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of that outcome occurring. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:00 PM ET and 11:15 PM ET on October 25th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will win. The precise price change will be verified against reliable financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices as they influence expectations about interest rates and monetary policy. Geopolitical events, like unexpected conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any significant news related to central bank gold reserves or major gold-producing countries could trigger price fluctuations and, consequently, shifts in this market.