TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

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2,984,028,936

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$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-10AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$3,369

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-10AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-10AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 10:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-10AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$202
$3,369
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T13:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T13:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the historical price action of the market. The dashboard also displays the current 24-hour volume, which is $3,360, and the total overall volume traded, currently at $3,369. This provides a quick overview of market activity and sentiment surrounding potential gold price fluctuations.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are offering predictions about gold’s performance, the prediction market aggregates the views of a diverse group of individuals, potentially capturing a wider range of information and insights. It’s interesting to note how this market’s implied probabilities align with—or diverge from—expert opinions regarding economic indicators and geopolitical events that could influence gold prices. The market provides a real-time, quantified assessment of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the odds closely reflect the current sentiment and available information. The market’s efficiency stems from the ability of traders to quickly incorporate new data and adjust their positions accordingly.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 9:45 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET on October 23rd. If the price is higher at 10:00 AM ET than at 9:45 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, shifts in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could affect the attractiveness of gold relative to other investments. Any surprise announcements related to major gold-holding nations or significant changes in global currency valuations could also move this market.