TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,240

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 9:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,240
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T13:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T13:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:15 AM and 9:30 AM ET on October 23rd. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,237. The total volume traded to date is $1,240, providing insight into overall market interest. This information helps traders assess sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market suggests a more uncertain outlook. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and expert opinions, as markets aggregate the wisdom of many individuals, potentially incorporating information not yet reflected in standard analyses. This difference highlights the unique insights offered by a forecasting tool like this market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of the 'up' outcome, with the 'down' outcome being the inverse. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:15 AM and 9:30 AM ET on October 23rd. If the price is higher at 9:30 AM than at 9:15 AM, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Additionally, any surprising news related to central bank policies, like interest rate changes, could cause a shift in sentiment. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding potential movements in this market and assessing the evolving probabilities.