TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 8:45AM-9AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,578

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 8:45AM-9AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 8:45AM-9AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 9:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 8:45AM-9AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$334
$2,578
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T12:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T12:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 8:45 AM and 9:00 AM ET on October 23rd. You'll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,550. The total volume for this market is $2,578. This allows you to see how much activity is happening and gauge the overall sentiment surrounding the potential price change.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a stable gold price given recent economic indicators, this market shows traders assigning a probability to either an increase or decrease. It's common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and expert opinions, as markets aggregate diverse viewpoints and react quickly to new information. This dynamic can provide a unique signal about potential price movements, separate from standard financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more traders bet on one outcome, the price of that outcome's contract will increase, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:45 AM and 9:00 AM ET on October 23rd. If the price is higher at 9:00 AM ET than at 8:45 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will win. The precise price data will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, could also drive volatility. Even surprising statements from key financial leaders could influence trader sentiment and cause the odds to shift. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market.