TOTAL VOLUME:

$155.3b

24H VOL:

$358,270,487

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3,002,125,488

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$2,041,693,191

423,163

Markets across

39,982

events

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4,387

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 7AM-7:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$610

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 7AM-7:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 7AM-7:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 7:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 7AM-7:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$104
$610
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T11:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T11:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $610, indicating the level of recent trading activity. Total volume for this market is $610, providing a broader view of overall interest.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and geopolitical events to predict gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to varying interpretations of data or the inclusion of factors not typically considered by analysts. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts before they are reflected in mainstream financial forecasts, offering a unique signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined solely by the actions of traders on Predict, and is not influenced by external factors or predetermined values. This creates a dynamic and responsive pricing system.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:00 AM ET and 7:15 AM ET on October 23rd. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be correct. No further details regarding the source of the price data are available at this time.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before the resolution date. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or escalating international tensions, can also drive volatility. Central bank announcements regarding interest rate policies or quantitative easing measures are likely to influence investor sentiment. Unexpected news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in global currency markets could also cause substantial price fluctuations in this market.