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420,493

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,251

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 7:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$198
$1,251
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T11:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T11:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified time window. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total 24-hour volume traded. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $1,245 and the overall volume is $1,251. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and see how much activity is occurring around this specific event.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, and may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market provides a probabilistic view—a chance of gold going up versus down. Comparing this market to polls and expert opinions reveals whether the crowd anticipates a different outcome than conventional wisdom suggests. It's a fascinating way to see if the market is pricing in factors that analysts may be overlooking.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective expectation of all participants, and the market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available. Traders are constantly updating their positions, leading to a fluid and responsive price discovery process.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:30 AM and 7:45 AM ET on October 23rd. If the price is higher at 7:45 AM ET than at 7:30 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will win. The exact price used for determination will be sourced from reliable financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive investors toward gold as a safe haven asset. Furthermore, any major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy, such as interest rate changes, could trigger a price movement. Shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in global risk appetite are other key signals to watch.