TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 4PM-4:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$447

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 4PM-4:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 4PM-4:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 4:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 4PM-4:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$447
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T20:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T20:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4PM and 4:15PM ET on October 23rd. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $442. The total volume traded to date is $447. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding this short-term price fluctuation.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might base their predictions on fundamental economic factors and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders responding to a broader range of information and potential catalysts. It's common to see discrepancies, especially in the short-term, as traders incorporate news and sentiment that may not be fully reflected in standard financial models. Examining these differences can offer a valuable, alternative view on the likely direction of the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probability displayed on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and is constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:00 PM and 4:15 PM ET on October 23rd. If the price is higher at 4:15 PM than at 4:00 PM, the 'Up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will win. The precise price data will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds to ensure an objective determination.

Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected policy announcements from major central banks, can also trigger substantial price swings. Even shifts in market sentiment driven by news headlines or social media trends could impact trading activity. Any surprise announcements related to interest rate decisions or currency fluctuations are also likely to be key catalysts for movement in this market.