TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 4:45AM-5AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,558

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 4:45AM-5AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 4:45AM-5AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 5:00 AM EST

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Predict

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 4:45AM-5AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,558
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T08:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T08:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4:45AM and 5:00AM ET on October 23rd. You'll find a price history chart displaying how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $1,558. The 24-hour volume is reported as $1,548, offering insight into recent trading activity. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are providing price targets and directional guidance, this market represents a real-money view, where participants are putting capital behind their beliefs. This often leads to a different assessment of probabilities than polls or expert opinions, reflecting a more immediate and financially-motivated outlook on the potential price movement. It's a fascinating comparison of sentiment versus investment.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, reflecting the aggregated expectations of all participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:45AM and 5:00AM ET on October 23rd, as reported by a recognized financial data source. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that period, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to those who correctly predicted the direction of the price movement.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in interest rate expectations could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Any surprise news regarding major gold-holding nations or significant central bank activity could also trigger substantial price movements and, consequently, shifts in this market.