TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 3AM-3:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,250

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 3AM-3:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 3AM-3:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 3:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 3AM-3:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,250
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T07:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T07:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 3:00 AM and 3:15 AM ET on October 23rd. You'll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the market's price history and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume is $1,250 and the 24-hour volume is $1,246. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how it's evolving as the event approaches.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or financial analysts’ predictions regarding short-term gold price fluctuations. While analysts might focus on fundamental economic indicators, the market reflects a broader range of factors and real-time information as traders react to news and events. This difference can be insightful, showcasing the wisdom of the crowd versus individual expert assessments.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of gold increasing in value is reflected in the contract price, and traders adjust their positions based on new information and their own analysis of the gold market.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:00 AM and 3:15 AM ET on October 23rd. If the price is higher at 3:15 AM ET than at 3:00 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or central bank policies could influence trader sentiment and shift the odds. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market.