TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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2,984,028,936

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$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

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4,415

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5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$498

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 3:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$498
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T19:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T19:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $493, and the total market volume, which is $498. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price change of gold. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves before the specified time.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer a range of predictions based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, risk tolerance, or access to unique information. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, offering a potentially valuable alternative gauge of expectations for the gold price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and the implied probability of each outcome is derived from the contract prices. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements as new information becomes available.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 3:30 PM ET and 3:45 PM ET on October 23rd. An increase in the price will result in a payout for those who predicted ‘up’, while a decrease will favor those who predicted ‘down’. The final price change will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, central bank announcements regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can have a substantial impact. Any surprise news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also trigger volatility in this market.