TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2PM-2:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$101

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2PM-2:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2PM-2:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 2:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2PM-2:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T18:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T18:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 2PM and 2:15PM ET on October 23rd. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders, as well as a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $99, and the total volume traded to date, which is $101. This provides a quick overview of market activity and sentiment.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are predicting continued volatility due to macroeconomic factors, this market reflects a more nuanced view based on real-time trading activity. It’s important to remember that analyst predictions are often based on models and assumptions, whereas this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of individuals with skin in the game. Examining the differences between these viewpoints can provide valuable insights into potential market movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price moving in a particular direction during the specified timeframe. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence and liquidity in the market.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 2:00 PM and 2:15 PM ET on October 23rd. If the price is higher at 2:15 PM ET than at 2:00 PM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Shifts in the US dollar’s strength or weakness will also be a key factor to watch, as gold is often priced in dollars.