TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2:45PM-3PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$103

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2:45PM-3PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2:45PM-3PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 3:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2:45PM-3PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$103
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T18:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T18:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $102, and the total volume traded to date, which is $103. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves before Oct 23, 2026.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders betting with real capital. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of economic indicators, geopolitical events, or simply varying risk appetites. It’s common to see this market anticipate moves before they are reflected in mainstream analyst opinions, or to demonstrate a higher degree of confidence in certain outcomes than traditional forecasts suggest.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to Oct 23, 2026, the more the price will reflect the prevailing sentiment and any new information that emerges. Trading volume and order book depth also influence price discovery in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:45 PM ET and 3:00 PM ET on October 23rd. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will win. The precise price change will be verified against credible public sources to determine the final result of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical tensions, particularly those involving major economies or safe-haven demand, can also drive volatility. Central bank announcements regarding monetary policy, like interest rate changes or quantitative easing, are key catalysts. Finally, any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in investor sentiment could influence trading activity in this market.