TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$139

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 2:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$139
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T18:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T18:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 2:30PM and 2:45PM ET on October 23rd. You'll find a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total 24-hour volume traded. Currently, the total volume for this market is $139, and the 24-hour volume is $139. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict suggests a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued downward trend due to interest rate hikes, this market reflects a more nuanced view, with probabilities shifting based on real-time information and trader conviction. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, whereas this market represents a direct expression of what traders believe will happen, incorporating a wider range of factors.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts will climb, and vice-versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:30PM and 2:45PM ET on October 23rd. If the price is higher at 2:45PM ET than at 2:30PM ET, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will win. The exact price source used for verification will be determined by Predict’s resolution procedures.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, can also cause substantial shifts in trader sentiment. Furthermore, any surprising news related to major gold-holding nations or significant changes in global risk appetite could influence the probabilities reflected in this market. Traders will be closely monitoring these factors.