TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

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4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1PM-1:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$51

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1PM-1:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1PM-1:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 1:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1PM-1:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$51
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1PM and 1:15PM ET on October 23rd. You’ll find a price chart reflecting trader sentiment, as well as the total volume traded in this market, currently at $51. The 24-hour volume is also visible, showing $51 in recent trading activity. This allows you to quickly gauge market interest and how opinions are shifting leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer price targets based on economic indicators and historical trends, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals betting their own capital. If a significant number of analysts predict a price increase, but this market shows a stronger inclination towards a price decrease, it suggests a divergence in expectations. It’s important to consider both viewpoints when forming your own opinion about the likely price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price isn't determined by a central authority, but rather emerges from the interactions of numerous participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1PM and 1:15PM ET on October 23rd. If the price is higher at 1:15PM ET than at 1PM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, 'Gold Down' will be the winning outcome. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could cause substantial price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.