TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:45PM-2PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$37

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:45PM-2PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:45PM-2PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 2:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:45PM-2PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds reflecting trader sentiment, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume for this market is $38, and the total group volume is $37. This information allows participants to gauge market interest and understand how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective forecast for whether the gold price will move up or down during the specified period.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential influencing factors. Often, prediction markets can outperform polls and expert opinions, especially when dealing with complex or uncertain events. It's common to see discrepancies between the implied probability in this market and the consensus view of financial analysts regarding gold price direction.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will rise or fall between 1:45 PM and 2:00 PM ET on October 23rd. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s assessment of the likelihood of gold increasing in value during that timeframe, and traders adjust their positions based on new information and their own analysis.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:45 PM and 2:00 PM ET on October 23rd. If the price is higher at 2:00 PM ET than at 1:45 PM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Gold Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, also tend to drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can influence market sentiment. Any surprise news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also cause substantial price movements in this market.