TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:45AM-2AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,312

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:45AM-2AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:45AM-2AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 2:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:45AM-2AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,312
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T05:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T05:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,307, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,312. This allows you to see how much activity there is and how traders are positioning themselves on whether the price of gold will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts may offer predictions on gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets are sensitive to real-time information and changing sentiment in a way that slower-moving analyst reports may not be. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts before they are reflected in mainstream financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and the odds are constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market stays responsive to the latest developments.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:45 AM and 2:00 AM Eastern Time on October 23, 2026. If the price is higher at 2:00 AM than at 1:45 AM, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or international conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected shifts in global currency markets or significant changes in investor risk appetite could also move the market. Any news related to gold mining production, central bank gold reserves, or major investment fund activity could also play a role in shaping the odds.