TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$199

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 1:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$199
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:30 PM and 1:45 PM ET on October 23rd. It also provides a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $199, and the 24-hour volume, which is $191. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are providing price targets and directional guidance, this market represents a collective judgment of traders putting their capital at risk. This difference in incentives often leads to diverging viewpoints; analysts may be subject to biases or institutional pressures, while traders in this market are directly incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Examining this contrast can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and the implied probability of each outcome is derived from the contract prices. Volume and order flow directly influence price discovery in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:30 PM and 1:45 PM ET on October 23rd. If the price increases during that window, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, can also drive volatility. Even shifts in investor sentiment, perhaps triggered by news related to currency fluctuations or safe-haven demand, could cause substantial movement. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone trading in this market.