TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 12:45AM-1AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$541

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 12:45AM-1AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 12:45AM-1AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 1:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 12:45AM-1AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$541
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T04:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T04:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $539, and the total volume traded to date, which is $541. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of gold prices leading up to the resolution date. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick understanding of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting continued volatility in the gold market due to global economic uncertainty, this market shows a more nuanced view based on collective trader intelligence. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the wisdom of the crowd, as represented by the probabilities established here. This difference can be valuable for informed decision-making and identifying potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, offering a dynamic and responsive indicator of market expectations. Trading volume and order book depth also influence price discovery in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified time window, from 12:45 AM to 1:00 AM Eastern Time on October 23rd. The final price will be compared to the opening price to determine if the market resolves to 'Up' or 'Down'. The outcome is determined by objective price data, not subjective interpretation or opinion.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy changes, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe haven asset. Furthermore, any significant shifts in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve could influence the market. Changes in the US dollar's strength or major central bank gold purchases are additional factors to watch closely as they could all contribute to price fluctuations.