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420,368

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 11AM-11:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$112

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 11AM-11:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 11AM-11:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 11:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 11AM-11:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$112
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T15:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T15:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM ET on October 23rd. You’ll find a price chart reflecting the evolving odds, the total volume traded to date of $112, and the 24-hour volume of $113. This allows you to monitor market sentiment and how it shifts as the event approaches. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold's price movement, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the potential outcome. If a majority of analysts predict a price increase, but the market shows a more even split, it suggests traders perceive greater uncertainty or disagree with the prevailing expert opinion. Examining this difference can provide valuable insights beyond standard financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly translating into implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time valuation of the potential outcome. As more traders participate, the price tends to converge towards a more accurate prediction.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM ET on October 23rd. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the ‘Down’ outcome will be correct. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy or interest rate adjustments could trigger price movements. Any significant news impacting global financial markets has the potential to shift the odds in this market.