TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.2b

24H VOL:

$192,072,993

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,842,388,377

408,027

Markets across

40,419

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$105

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 1:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$105
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:15 PM and 1:30 PM ET on October 23rd. You'll find a price history chart displaying how probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market—currently $105—and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $103. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving leading up to the event.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict suggests a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding gold’s short-term movement. While some analysts predict a slight downward trend due to recent economic data, this market shows a more nuanced expectation. It’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect a diverse range of opinions and can incorporate information not always captured in standard financial models. This allows for a dynamic assessment of potential outcomes, potentially identifying signals missed by conventional analysis.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final gold price between 1:15 PM and 1:30 PM ET on October 23rd will be compared to the opening price at 1:15 PM ET to determine whether the price moved up or down. Traders holding contracts predicting the correct direction will receive a payout, while those betting on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their stake. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from established financial sources.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any surprising statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could trigger price movements. Monitoring these events and their potential impact on market sentiment is crucial for understanding the fluctuations in this market.