TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 10:45AM-11AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,311

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 10:45AM-11AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 10:45AM-11AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 11:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 10:45AM-11AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$359
$1,311
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T14:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T14:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:45 AM and 11:00 AM ET on October 23rd. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total volume traded in this market—currently at $1,311—and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $1,315. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market shows a more nuanced view, with traders assigning a significant probability to a downward movement within the specified timeframe. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts often rely on longer-term economic indicators, while this market focuses on a very specific, short-term price action. This difference in scope explains some of the divergence.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the designated period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the crowd and provides a forward-looking indicator of potential price movements. The current volume of $1,311 suggests moderate trader interest.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the spot price of gold at 11:00 AM ET on October 23rd is higher or lower than its price at 10:45 AM ET. The final price data will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to see whether their predictions aligned with the actual price movement.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or surprise political announcements, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence the direction of the gold price. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.