TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,111

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 10:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$36
$1,111
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T14:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T14:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 10:30AM and 10:45AM ET on October 23rd. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,100, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,111. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, representing their beliefs about the likelihood of gold’s price movement. Often, prediction markets can provide a more accurate forecast than polls or individual analyst opinions, as they incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs. However, it's crucial to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds reflect the aggregate sentiment of all participants, offering a real-time assessment of expectations. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:30AM and 10:45AM ET on October 23rd. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will win. The exact price source used for verification will be determined by Predict’s resolution process.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could affect the market. Finally, significant trading volume or large orders on Predict itself could also cause noticeable price movements.