TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$897

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 9:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$4
$897
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T01:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T01:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $878. Total volume for this market is $897. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets and directional predictions for gold, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a real-money view of the likely outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to divergences from static analyst reports. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:30 PM and 9:45 PM ET on October 22nd. An increase in price during that window will result in a payout for those who predicted 'up', while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'down'. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy changes, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy or interest rate expectations are closely watched by traders. Any surprise announcements or shifts in market sentiment related to these factors could lead to substantial price swings and changes in the odds within this market.